Technical support for the preparation of offers from private groups

Assignment Study and Forecast Traffic: Siglo XXI Highway

Context of the study

The phase II of the Siglo XXI Highway was included among the campaign promises of President Enrique Peña Nieto.  FOA Consulting was the traffic advisor of the winning consortium in the tender  launched by  SCT.

Methodological strengths

The methodology of the study is summarized in the following steps:

• The methodology of the study is summarized in the following steps:

  Field works well applied and supervised.

  Orthodox modelling approach.

  Segmentation of demand in relevant market segments.

  Consider the effect of other projects being developed on the network.

  Estimate the likely induced traffic expected fromnew project stages given their characteristics, through a detailed analysis per pair origin - destination. Using a methodology developed by our company, this phenomenon has been tested in multiple projects.

  Demand risk analysis, beyond a simple sensitivity analysis.

  Probability scenarios generated from Monte Carlo simulations as input for the financial modelling of the project.

A successful case

The consortium assessed by FOA won the tender for the construction, operation, exploitation, conservation and maintenance of the Siglo XXI Highway, which goes from Jantetelco to  Xicatlacotla  in the state of Morelos.  This 62 kilometers new  road will have  an investment of up to 2,756 million pesos in 24 months and will directly benefit the states of Morelos, Puebla and Guerrero, in terms of connectivity, reduced travel times increase, convenience and safety for users, as reported by the  Ministry  of Communications and Transportation  (SCT).

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