FOA Consultores

Assignment Study and Forecast Traffic: Siglo XXI Highway

FOA Consulting determined assigned, induced and generated traffic for the XXI Century Highway as well as its growth forecast for the next 30 years. The sensitivity analysis of demand to toll rates was performed.

Context of the study

The phase II of the Siglo XXI Highway was included among the campaign promises of President Enrique Peña Nieto. FOA Consulting was the traffic advisor of the winning consortium in the tender launched by SCT.

Methodological strengths

The methodology of the study is summarized in the following steps:

The methodology of the study is summarized in the following steps:

Field works well applied and supervised.

Orthodox modelling approach.

Segmentation of demand in relevant market segments.

Consider the effect of other projects being developed on the network.

Estimate the likely induced traffic expected fromnew project stages given their characteristics, through a detailed analysis per pair origin - destination. Using a methodology developed by our company, this phenomenon has been tested in multiple projects.

Demand risk analysis, beyond a simple sensitivity analysis.

Probability scenarios generated from Monte Carlo simulations as input for the financial modelling of the project.

A successful case

The consortium assessed by FOA won the tender for the construction, operation, exploitation, conservation and maintenance of the Siglo XXI Highway, which goes from Jantetelco to Xicatlacotla in the state of Morelos. This 62 kilometers new road will have an investment of up to 2,756 million pesos in 24 months and will directly benefit the states of Morelos, Puebla and Guerrero, in terms of connectivity, reduced travel times increase, convenience and safety for users, as reported by the Ministry of Communications and Transportation (SCT).

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